General Hurricane Evacuation Study Tasks
 
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Hurricane Surge
Vulnerability
Shelter Studies
Behavioral Work
Transportation
Decision Tools




The primary Purpose of a Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) is to develop tools and information that will assist the  State and County Emergency Management Offices decide who should evacuate during a hurricane threat and when the evacuation order should be given to insure all evacuees have enough time to get to safety. 

 

 

 

 

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Hurricane Surge  -  Hurricane storm surge is an abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm.   Along the coastline a hurricane will cause waves on top of the surge.    The picture below may have a surge height of 10 feet with 8 foot waves resulting in water elevations of 18 feet above mean sea level.

Hurricane Surge is estimated with the use of computer model called SLOSH.  SLOSH stands for Sea Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes.  The SLOSH models are created and run by the National Hurricane Center.   There are about 40 SLOSH models from Maine to Texas.  

The SLOSH model results are merged with ground elevation data to determine areas that will be subject to flooding from various Categories of hurricanes.   Hurricane Categories are defined by the Saffir-Simpson Scale.   Surge areas for the five Hurricane storm Categories are plotted on maps and used to determine evacuation areas.

 

 

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Vulnerability Analysis - The primary purpose of the vulnerability analysis is to identify the areas, populations, and facilities that are vulnerable to storm surge and to wind damage.      The number of mobile home units throughout the counties are important because their residents are usually asked to evacuate due to the wind hazards.   In many areas tourist population is a key factor in computing times for evacuation and usually impacted by even minimal hurricanes.

 

 

 

  Return to Top Hurricane Shelter Studies The general purpose of the shelter analysis is to estimate the number of evacuees that will seek public shelter and determine the number of shelter spaces available. This information is used by County and State emergency management offices to develop a management plan for shelter operation to insure that the evacuees seeking public shelter will have adequate and safe shelter space.

 

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Behavioral Studies -  Behavioral studies are conducted to provide estimates of public response to a variety of hurricane threats.   The primary information obtained from these studies are as follows:

What percent of the population will evacuate for various hurricane threats and evacuation advisories.

How quickly will people respond to an evacuation order or advisory.

How many vehicles will evacuees use during a evacuation.

What percentage of evacuating vehicles will  tow boats, camper trailers, or other vehicular equipment.

What number of evacuees will seek public shelters, stay with friends or relatives, look for a motel, or leave the county.

Where will they go if they leave their home county.

All of these items are very important in estimating the total number of vehicles that will be on the roadways. This is one of the key factors in determining how long it will take to evacuate these people before they are threatened by gale force winds.

 

 

  Return to Top Transportation Studies  -  The overall goal of the transportation analysis is to estimate the time it takes to get all evacuees to safety and off the roads before they are hit with gale force winds.   This effort basically calculates the time it takes to move and clear all evacuating traffic off available major evacuation roadways.    This time is called a clearance time.   Clearance times vary depending upon; roadway capacities, storm intensity, tourist occupancy and a number of other variables.  
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Decision Tools  -   One of the most used decision tools we have developed for the emergency management community is the new HURREVAC computer program.   The program downloads hurricane advisory data provided by the National Hurricane Center and puts it in a user friendly graphical interface to help decide when and if an evacuation should be ordered.   The program operates with specific clearance time data files and surge map files for each coastal county.    The model is only available to the emergency management community.   Click on the HURREVAC sample on the left to see a larger view.