Weather Update

The hard winter of 2009/10 will continue to usher in record (or near record) cold for the Southeast well into March this year. The precipitation pattern looks very dry, at least for the next 10-days. Little precipitation whatsoever is indicated across interior portions of the District. The Gulf Coast and Florida will see some light rain Monday. Long range computer models are in disarray at this time as to the development of a potential storm system for the Gulf Coast, Florida and the Coastal Carolinas early next week.

**Actual rainfall amounts will affect the lake level and river forecasts provided below**

Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa Basin

Allatoona Lake’s current elevation is near 830.2-ft. The reservoir is forecast near elevation 831.3-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Allatoona can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/allafc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 66th-percentile value as indicated by the USGS Etowah River gage at Canton, GA (based on 14-day average stream flow). Inflows during February have averaged near 4,273-cfs, 156% of the historical average Over the next week, the average 7-day releases are expected to be near 1,300-cfs.

Carters Lake’s current elevation is near 1073.5-ft and is forecast to be near 1073.6-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Carters can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/cartfc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 58th-percentile as indicated by the USGS Coosawattee River gage near Ellijay, GA (based on 14-day average stream flow). Inflows during February have averaged near 1,400-cfs, 133% of the historical average. Releases from the Rereg dam next week are expected to average near 1,500-cfs.

R. F. Henry’s current elevation is 125.5-ft and is forecast near 125.0-ft by the end of next week.

Millers Ferry’s current elevation is 79.5-ft and is forecast near 80.0-ft by the end of next week.

The current Claiborne TW reading is 28.9-ft and is expected to be near 25-ft by the end of next week.

*It’s important to note that tailwater estimates provided by the Corps are daily averages, and fluctuations will occur. The official river forecast for the Alabama River is provided by the National Weather Service. For convenience the forecasts are listed on the Mobile District Water Management web page at http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/forecast_points.htm#bwt.

Navigators should contact the Navigation Section at (251) 694-3708 for the latest update on dredging operations, controlling depths and river conditions. Entities wishing to move cargo on the Alabama River system should contact the Coosa-Alabama River Improvement Association (CARIA) to coordinate your shipping schedule during the low water conditions. The phone number is (334) 265-5744.

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Basin

Currently the ACF composite conservation storage is at the top of Composite Zone 1 and is forecast to remain in Zone 1 next week. The current 7-day basin inflow is approximately 40,900-cfs. The ACF Composite Conservation Storage can be seen via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/ACFcomposite.htm

Lake Lanier’s current elevation is 1070.3-ft and is expected to be near elevation 1070.0-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Lanier can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/lanfc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 77th-percentile as indicated by the USGS Chattahoochee River gage near Cornelia, GA (based on 14-d average stream flow). Inflows during February have averaged near 4,896-cfs, 171% of the historical monthly average. Over the upcoming week releases are expected to be 3,600-cfs (7-day average). Lake Lanier is above Zone 1. Buford is currently operating to meet a downstream minimum flow in the Chattahoochee River at Peachtree Creek in Atlanta and to meet ACF basin requirements as needed in a basin-wide balanced operation.

West Point’s current elevation is 629.5-ft. The reservoir is expected to be near elevation 629.7-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for West Point can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/westfc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 84th-percentile as indicated by the USGS Chattahoochee River gage near Whitesburg, GA (based on 14-d average stream flow). West Point is currently above Zone 1. Inflows during February have averaged near 13,000-cfs, 187% of the historical average. For the upcoming week we expect to release a 7-day average outflow of 6,250-cfs.

Walter F. George Reservoir’s current elevation is 188.1-ft and is expected to be near elevation 188.0-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for George can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/georfc.htm. George is currently above Zone 1. Inflows during February have averaged near 24,000-cfs, 159% of the historical average. Current releases are near 18,000-cfs. For the upcoming week we expect to release a 7-day average outflow of 12,200-cfs.

The Andrews L&D upper elevation is near 102.5-ft. The tailwater elevation is near 85.1-ft.

Lake Seminole’s elevation is near 77.5-ft and is expected be near 77.3-ft next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Lake Seminole can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/woodfc.htm. The project is currently discharging a flow of approximately 41,300-cfs as measured at the USGS Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL gage.

The 6am Blountstown stage was near 15.7-ft. Blountstown will be in the 13 to 16-ft range next week. The five-week forecast of stages for the Blountstown gage can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/blstfc.htm.

*The official river forecast for the Apalachicola River is provided by the National Weather Service. For convenience the forecasts are listed on the Mobile District Water Management web page at http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/forecast_points.htm#bwt.

A 9.0-foot stage provides a 9-foot depth based on the latest information. Navigation interests should contact the Corps of Engineers’ Navigation Section at 251-694-3708 for the latest update on controlling depths and river conditions. 　

Pascagoula River Basin

Okatibbee Lake is currently near elevation 340.2-ft and the dam is currently releasing 600 cfs. The lake level is forecast to be near 339.2-ft next week. The forecast of reservoir levels for Okatibbee can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/oka-fc.jpg. 　

Black Warrior Tombigbee & Tenn-Tom Basins Coffeeville Dam tailwater elevation is near 16.4-ft. Forecasted to be near 15-ft by the end of next week.

*The official river forecast for the BWT & Tenn-Tom Rivers is provided by the National Weather Service. For convenience the forecasts are listed on the Mobile District Water Management web page at http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/forecast_points.htm#bwt.

Other Information and Links

All reservoir levels mentioned above are in feet above mean sea level (ft-msl) and flows are in cubic feet per second (cfs).

River stage forecasts and impact levels provided by the National Weather Service can be accessed at this link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ahps/default.html

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor can be accessed at: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

An explanation of the action zones can be found at this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/zones.htm

The latest navigation bulletin can be accessed via this link: http://navigation.sam.usace.army.mil/docs/index.asp?type=nn.

Fish spawn information can be accessed at this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/fish_spawn.htm

A summary page containing several of the ACF links mentioned above can be accessed at: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/acf_resource.htm

Additional information and graphs can be accessed on the Water Management web page at: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

"Water Manager for a Day" – Contact water-sam@usace.army.mil to schedule a time to visit the Mobile District Water Management Section.