Weather Update

Provided by NWS WFO Peachtree City, GA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

JUST SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL HAVE A PLAY IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS.

LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA IS STILL SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SKIES ACROSS GEORGIA WERE CLEAR.

**Actual rainfall amounts will affect the lake level and river forecasts provided below**

Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa Basin

Lake Allatoona’s current elevation is near 842.13-ft. The reservoir is forecast near elevation 840.7-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Allatoona can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/allafc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 96th-percentile value as indicated by the USGS Etowah River gage at Canton, GA (based on 14-day average stream flow). Inflows during November have averaged near 1,631-cfs, 140% of the historical average Over the next week, the average 7-day releases are expected to be near 5,100-cfs.

Carters Lake’s current elevation was 1079.93-ft and is forecast to be near 1079.6-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Carters can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/cartfc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 95th-percentile as indicated by the USGS Coosawattee River gage near Ellijay, GA (based on 14-day average stream flow). Inflows during November have averaged near 635-cfs, 123% of the historical average. Releases from the Rereg dam next week are expected to be near 2,000-cfs.

R. F. Henry’s current elevation is 125.29-ft and is forecast near 125.5-ft by the end of next week. Inflows into R.F. Henry are cresting and will continue to fall out over the weekend. Below R.F. Henry, the tailwater has crested just below 120. Flood stage is 122.

Millers Ferry’s current elevation is 79.89-ft and is forecast near 80.6-ft by the end of next week. Inflows from the Cahaba River will continue to rise over the weekend. Millers Ferry tailwater is currently 69.62-ft, 3-ft above flood stage. Stage is expected to crest Sunday at 71.4-ft.

The current Claiborne TW reading was 42.81-ft and is expected to crest Sunday at 45.2-ft. Claiborne TW will remain above flood stage of 42-ft through mid-next week. Under current conditions, a Claiborne tailwater reading of 7.9 feet is required to provide a 9 foot navigation channel.

*It’s important to note that tailwater estimates provided by the Corps are daily averages, and fluctuations will occur. The official river forecast for the Alabama River is provided by the National Weather Service. For convenience the forecasts are listed on the Mobile District Water Management web page at http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/forecast_points.htm#bwt.

Navigators should contact the Navigation Section at (251) 694-3708 for the latest update on dredging operations, controlling depths and river conditions. Entities wishing to move cargo on the Alabama River system should contact the Coosa-Alabama River Improvement Association (CARIA) to coordinate your shipping schedule during the low water conditions. The phone number is (334) 265-5744.

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Basin

Currently the ACF composite conservation storage is at the top of Composite Zone 1 and is forecast to remain in Zone 1 next week. The current 7-day basin inflow is approximately 55,015-cfs. The ACF Composite Conservation Storage can be seen via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/ACFcomposite.htm

Lake Lanier’s current elevation is 1073.00-ft and is expected to be near elevation 1071.3-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Lanier can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/lanfc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 95th-percentile as indicated by the USGS Chattahoochee River gage near Cornelia, GA (based on 14-d average stream flow). Inflows during November have averaged near 1,983-cfs, 136% of the historical monthly average. Over the upcoming week releases are expected to be 7,000-cfs (7-day average). Lake Lanier is above Zone 1. Buford is currently operating to meet a downstream minimum flow in the Chattahoochee River at Peachtree Creek in Atlanta and to meet ACF basin requirements as needed in a basin-wide balanced operation.

West Point’s current elevation is 636.08-ft. The reservoir is expected to be near elevation 633.1-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for West Point can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/westfc.htm. Flows in this region of the basin are currently near the 98th-percentile as indicated by the USGS Chattahoochee River gage near Whitesburg, GA (based on 14-d average stream flow). West Point is currently above Zone 1. Inflows during November have averaged near 5,330-cfs, 140% of the historical average. Current releases are near 27,000-cfs. For the upcoming week we expect to release a 7-day average outflow of 19,800-cfs.

Walter F. George Reservoir’s current elevation is 190.13-ft and is expected to be near elevation 188.9-ft by the end of next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for George can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/georfc.htm. George is currently above Zone 1. Inflows during November have averaged near 9,229-cfs, 140% of the historical average. Current releases are near 65,000-cfs. For the upcoming week we expect to release a 7-day average outflow of 31,000-cfs.

The Andrews L&D upper elevation is near 108.60-ft. The tailwater elevation is near 106.21-ft.

Lake Seminole’s elevation is near 77.18-ft and is expected be near 77.2-ft next week. The five-week forecast of reservoir levels for Lake Seminole can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/woodfc.htm. The project is currently discharging a flow of approximately 84,600-cfs as measured at the USGS Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL gage.

The 6am Blountstown stage was near 17.73-ft. Blountstown will be in the 19 to 21-ft range next week. The five-week forecast of stages for the Blountstown gage can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/blstfc.htm.

*The official river forecast for the Apalachicola River is provided by the National Weather Service. For convenience the forecasts are listed on the Mobile District Water Management web page at http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/forecast_points.htm#bwt.

A 9.0-foot stage provides a 9-foot depth based on the latest information. Navigation interests should contact the Corps of Engineers’ Navigation Section at 251-694-3708 for the latest update on controlling depths and river conditions. 　

Pascagoula River Basin

Okatibbee Lake is currently near elevation 339.92-ft and the dam is currently releasing 282 cfs. The lake level is forecast to be near 338.9-ft next week. The forecast of reservoir levels for Okatibbee can be accessed via this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/oka-fc.jpg. 　

Black Warrior Tombigbee & Tenn-Tom Basins Coffeeville Dam tailwater elevation is near 30.6-ft (29-ft flood stage). A -1.0 ft. MSL tailwater at Coffeeville is currently needed to obtain a 9.0 ft. channel. Forecasted to be near 24-ft by the end of next week.

Selden Lock & Dam tailwater elevation near 93.6-ft (90-ft flood stage). Forecasted to be near 78-ft by the end of next week.

*The official river forecast for the Apalachicola River is provided by the National Weather Service. For convenience the forecasts are listed on the Mobile District Water Management web page at http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/forecast_points.htm#bwt.

Other Information and Links

All reservoir levels mentioned above are in feet above mean sea level (ft-msl) and flows are in cubic feet per second (cfs).

River stage forecasts and impact levels provided by the National Weather Service can be accessed at this link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ahps/default.html

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor can be accessed at: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

An explanation of the action zones can be found at this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/zones.htm

The latest navigation bulletin can be accessed via this link: http://navigation.sam.usace.army.mil/docs/index.asp?type=nn.

Fish spawn information can be accessed at this link: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/fish_spawn.htm

A summary page containing several of the ACF links mentioned above can be accessed at: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/acf_resource.htm

Additional information and graphs can be accessed on the Water Management web page at: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

"Water Manager for a Day" – Contact water-sam@usace.army.mil to schedule a time to visit the Mobile District Water Management Section.